The Brexit vote is an event that got very real, very quick. In the days since the Leave side won the referendum the political and social landscape in Britain has has been one tumultuous day after another, going from uncertainty and shock, to political careers ending, Labour finding itself in a deep crisis, market turmoil, and the insanely fast unravelling of the Leave campaign’s web of lies and deceit.
For a Canadian, what has played out since that fateful vote on June 23rd almost feels like the alternate ending to the 1995 Quebec sovereignty referendum. It was an event that had all Canadians on the edge of their seats, with No winning by a razor thin margin of 1.2%. Those numbers, 50.6% No and 49.4% Yes, are forever burned into many people’s memory. And looking at my Twitter feed Thursday night it was clear I was not the only Canadian having flashbacks to October 30th.
It is probably impossible for anyone to predict how this will impact Britain and Europe in the coming weeks, months, and years. People will academically, and emotionally, debate how it all came to be and what should happen next. For outsiders, we may have strong opinions about what happened, and when it comes to Britain’s future all we can do is watch. But for Canada there are still critical lessons that we need to take from this historical political event.
A turnaround after 1995
It is important to quickly catch up on what has happened with the separatist movement in Quebec since 1995. The average Canadian citizen could, and probably does, rationally assume that the Quebec separatist movement is fading away. It is a reasonably logical conclusion as the power of the BQ has faded to almost nothing, the PQ has struggled with its leadership and to unseat the Liberals from power, and the general tone and conversation seems to have moved beyond talks of sovereignty. Independence is no longer discussed to the degree it was a few decades ago, be it in the media, as a topic of debate among Federal and Provincial politicians, or in general discourse among Canadians.
There are a lot of reasons for this decline, and it would take a full length book to completely examine what has taken place in the past 21 years. In short though, Quebecers have found a way to take control of many aspects of their economy, language, lives, and culture, even without having seceded from Canada. Enough so that many of the reasons for separation no longer exist, or no longer hold the same gravitas they did just a few decades ago.
Despite the decline in the movement though, there are still nationalists, in large numbers, in Quebec today. Their influence might be small compared to what it once was, but make no mistake, it is still there, and their political and financial machines are still very much in place, ready to roll at a moments notice.
In some parts of Canada, primarily among Quebec’s neighbours, there is a stronger understanding of the province, and connection to it, then there was 30 years ago. Many people forever had their views and feelings about Quebec altered as a result of the ’95 referendum, and in a positive, progressive way. But travel further away from Quebec and the views people express are almost identical to what you would have heard in the 1980’s. While there are many great things you can say about the Prairie provinces, the one aspect I always find surprising and disheartening is the view of Quebec (and the east in general), that is expressed here. Disdain for the province is still rampant on the flatlands of Canada, as though nothing was learned from that close call in ’95.
Brexit, Canada, and the threat arrogance and marginalization brings
Returning to the Brexit vote, it is clear that a lot of it was fuelled by discontent from the working class at their economic conditions (leaving aside the racists undertones the Leave campaign had). The North of England, and Wales, which is much more industrial and has not always benefited from the gains that came from the EU and globalization as a whole, used the referendum as a fuck you to EU and UK elites who had forgotten about them. For many people getting out of the EU was sold as a way to regain some of Britain’s prosperity, whether through savings from not having EU transfer payments, or reducing immigration to “save jobs”.
The real tragedy isn’t that they voted to Leave the EU, which in many ways you can understand, but rather that they were conned by a different group of UK elitists. You can take a high and mighty position and say they should have known that Leave was full of liars, racists, and crooks. But that is a total bullshit, elitist position and underestimates the intelligence that many pro-Leave supporters possess. Even fear-mongering pro-Remain people could not have guessed that so much would fall apart so quickly. That the mistruths about EU transfer payments, changes to immigration, and the speed at which an exit would take place, were lies, falls squarely on the people who spoke them.
The hubris, arrogance, and elitist agendas from both sides has resulted in the mess we see now. And a group of people who found themselves voting out of frustration and discontent are now being left at the margins again it seems.
In Canada, we have seen how the discontent of Quebecers lead to a near disastrous outcome. But just because we escaped that potential calamity 21 years ago, doesn’t mean that it cannot happen again.
Much like the EU, Canada is a project and experiment of how to bring together diverse groups of people under a single cultural and economic union. Canada can be divided in so many different ways….French, English, and Aboriginal….East, West and North….those that were born here and those that have immigrated….urban and rural….the list goes on.
As Canada has become more diverse, and multicultural, these divisions and tensions become tested more and more each day. Some, such as western Canadians view of Easterners, are largely based on populist, rhetoric bullshit. Others, such as how Aboriginals feel about their place in Canada and society as a whole, are very much real, based on rampant racism, and institutional structures that make it tough for many to better their lives.
But as Brexit has shown, even concerns from groups that many would already consider privileged can become a powerful political movement. In Alberta we see large numbers of people losing their jobs, homes, and vehicles due to economic decline there. The collapse in the price of oil created this economic recession for the province, which is not surprising as commodities are subject to those boom and bust periods. But when their industry and lively hoods were given so much praise, attention, and money for so long, from a government that is no longer in power, many have become ingrained with the populist, free-market rhetoric, that was espoused at the Provincial and Federal levels. And with a new government, lead by the son of a prime minister that so many westerners blamed for the collapse to the energy sector in the 1980’s, you can see how this populist movement could be fuelled with real intensity.
That isn’t to say that suddenly Albertans, and to a lesser degree, Saskatchewans, are going to rise up and vote to leave Canada or throw their support behind a far-right party. But if it happened in Britain, and seems to be happening in America, then there is no reason it could not happen here too. Just as the continuation of strained tensions between Aboriginals and the rest of Canada could lead to an even stronger political movement then has already been emerging. Or how a change in the economy of Quebec in one direction or another could lead to a new rise in the sovereignty movement.
Radical change can come out of nowhere
One of the most interesting aspects of the Brexit vote was how many people were genuinely surprised that the Leave campaign won. Not just observers either, but even many Leave campaigners seemed shocked that they had pulled it off. It all seemed to happen so quickly and with a relative speed that has left many politicians and citizens completely unprepared and unsure of what to do next. And now it has taken on its own life. It is essentially unstoppable with all new problems, from a potential Scottish separatist movement gaining even more legitimacy, to increased racism in the country, taking shape.
It is a case where the power of discontent showed what a force it can be, combined with a long time fringe movement seizing a moment in time to become a formidable political movement. Back in the Great White North the separatists lie dormant, as though they were a hibernating bear waiting for the long winter to end, and for spring to finally come. Likewise the Aboriginal solidarity movement finds itself in a somewhat neutral state as more First Nation leaders become part of mainstream politics in an attempt to leverage power from within. But should that tactic fail, a return to more grassroots, revolutionary methods could be foreseeable (and I would argue, almost certain to happen).
Slumbering social movements have a way of quickly taking root when the time is right and for Canada it is critical that we address the root cause of these movements before they spring to life and lead us down a path we cannot reverse.We saw 10 years of regional arrogance from a Conservative government that bet everything on the seemingly never ending strength of fossil fuels, only to have it all collapse under them. And though the current government is certainly more open, diplomatic, and less hostile, dismissive arrogance towards the prairie provinces current troubles could have negative effects.
Making the next 21 years even more successful
Canada has come a long way since 95. There have been endless free trade agreements which have fully integrated the country into the global economy. Cities are becoming more urban, sustainable and desirable. Quebecers have still found a way to determine their own destiny as much as possible and their economy has turned around after the brutal times of the 80s and 90s. The list could go on but the end point is that there are so many exciting paths that Canada can take right now.
And looking at Canada today, despite the struggle to truly kick start the economy again, and many other important issues as well, you could feel confident in saying that the country is strong, continuing the march of progress, and even working towards once again becoming a humanitarian leader in the world.
But at its heart it is still a fragile collection of, what is at times, a dizzying array of different groups of people, composed of different nations, with different religions and lifestyles. Canada is not immune to the kind of arrogance and hubris that allowed Brexit to become a political reality. While both Trudeau and Levesque were political titans in their day and did a great deal of good for the long term strength of the country, their arrogance to almost helped lead Canada down what likely would have been a destructive path for both Quebec and the Rest of Canada.
Canadians are lucky that October 31st, 1995 did not look like June 24th, 2016 and we must be vigilant and ensuring it doesn’t happen in the future either. The benefits of this constant balancing act between our citizens is ensuring Canada’s success, and its future as a leader in the world, and as a tolerant, prosperous country. Let Brexit be a reminder that what we have achieved required extraordinary work, and will require more work to maintain during the toughest of times.
Manitoba Ninja 